Missoula’s Winter Forecast Includes a Weather Threat Drivers Shouldn’t Ignore

As we head into November, Montanans are starting to turn their attention to winter weather. We've already seen several long-range forecasts for the upcoming season, including outlooks from NOAA, the Old Farmer's Almanac, and the Farmers' Almanac. We've also seen forecasts looking ahead to Thanksgiving.

A new update from the National Weather Service in Missoula gives us more to think about as we prepare for winter in western Montana.

READ MORE: NOAA’s Updated Montana Winter Forecast Isn’t Great News for Snow

El Niño's Impact on Montana's Winter Forecast

El Niño is expected to continue influencing our winter weather, bringing the potential for above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation. However, that doesn't mean we can put away our snow shovels or expect to escape the cold this winter.

According to NOAA's October 15 winter outlook, warmer-than-average temperatures are favored across the northern United States, while parts of the northern Rockies have an increased likelihood of below-average precipitation. These are seasonal outlooks based on averages, not predictions of what will happen on any particular day.

Montana can still experience major snowstorms, bitterly cold temperatures, and periods of intense winter weather. Even if the overall season ends up warmer and drier than normal, we could still see some significant winter storms roll through the state.

The National Weather Service in Missoula emphasizes that a seasonal outlook doesn't predict the weather on any particular day. Snowstorms and bitter cold can still happen.

READ MORE: NOAA and Old Farmer’s Almanac Disagree on Montana’s Winter

Understanding Seasonal Outlooks: What They Really Mean

One part of the winter outlook that caught my attention was the potential for more freezing rain in western Montana, particularly in the lower elevations.

Of all the winter weather conditions we deal with here in Montana, freezing rain is one of my least favorite. It can make driving incredibly difficult, turning roads into sheets of ice with very little warning.

It's a good reminder that even if we're heading into a winter that could be warmer than normal, we shouldn't let our guard down.

A milder winter outlook is no reason to skip the usual vehicle winter preparations.

Essential Winter Supplies for Your Vehicle

Here are a few things worth keeping in your vehicle this winter:

• A warm blanket: If you become stranded, having something warm to wrap yourself in can make a big difference.
• Food and snacks: Keep a supply of nonperishable snacks in your vehicle, especially if you regularly travel long distances.
• Bottled water: Having drinking water available is important if you're stuck waiting for help.
• A portable phone charger: A portable power bank can help keep your cell phone charged when you need to call for assistance.
• Kitty litter or another traction aid: These can help provide traction if your vehicle gets stuck. Remember that kitty litter may be less effective on ice than products specifically designed for traction.
• Tire chains: If you travel mountain passes or other areas that experience difficult winter driving conditions, chains may be worth considering. Make sure you know how to use them and understand any applicable restrictions.
• A winter emergency kit: A flashlight, extra clothing, gloves, a first-aid kit, and other basic emergency supplies can be valuable when you're stranded.

It's also worth making sure your tires are appropriate for winter driving. Studded tires can provide additional traction on icy surfaces, although they aren't a guarantee of safety. Even with good winter tires, freezing rain can make driving extremely dangerous.

Before heading out, check the latest road conditions and weather forecasts, particularly if you're traveling over mountain passes or through areas known for winter weather.

Stay Informed: Adapting to Montana’s Winter Conditions

El Niño will be an important factor in this winter's weather, but it won't determine every storm or cold snap that comes our way.

We could experience stretches of warmer weather followed by a significant snowstorm. We could also see temperatures drop well below freezing, even if the seasonal average ends up above normal.

The important thing is to stay informed, pay attention to changing forecasts, and prepare for the possibility of hazardous winter conditions.

Freezing rain is particularly concerning because it can quickly turn an ordinary commute into a dangerous situation.

Keep an eye on the forecast, make sure your vehicle is ready for winter, and remember that a warmer-than-average winter doesn't necessarily mean an easier winter.

Stay safe out there, Montana!